Is Solar Worth It in Virginia in 2026?
Virginia sits at about 37.9°N, which puts it in the middle of the pack for U.S. sun — better than New England, well short of Arizona. A well-sited system near Virginia Beach produces around 1,403 kWh per installed kilowatt per year, a solid but unspectacular number. That's the honest starting point: Virginia was never going to be a Florida or a Texas on production alone.
What changed for 2026 is bigger than sun angle. The 30 percent federal tax credit that used to shave thousands off a Virginia install ended for systems completed after December 31, 2025. At the same time, the state's biggest net metering fight in years just resolved — mostly in homeowners' favor — and a new state law is set to push Virginia's SREC market higher. None of that replaces the federal credit, but it means Virginia isn't standing still either. Solar can still pencil out here, especially on an unshaded, south-facing roof with a high bill and a homeowner planning to stay put for over a decade. It just takes longer to pay back than it did a year ago, so this page runs the real 2026 numbers instead of a 2024 pitch.
Virginia Electricity Prices Keep Climbing
Solar is a bet on where electricity prices go next, because every kilowatt-hour your roof makes is one you don't buy from the utility. Here's Virginia's rate history from federal EIA data.
Full Virginia electricity price data (1990–2025)
| Year | Virginia (¢/kWh) | US avg (¢/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| 1991 | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| 1992 | 7.6 | 8.2 |
| 1993 | 7.6 | 8.3 |
| 1994 | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| 1995 | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| 1996 | 7.6 | 8.4 |
| 1997 | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| 1998 | 7.5 | 8.3 |
| 1999 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| 2000 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| 2001 | 7.8 | 8.6 |
| 2002 | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| 2003 | 7.8 | 8.7 |
| 2004 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| 2005 | 8.2 | 9.5 |
| 2006 | 8.5 | 10.4 |
| 2007 | 8.7 | 10.7 |
| 2008 | 9.6 | 11.3 |
| 2009 | 10.6 | 11.5 |
| 2010 | 10.5 | 11.5 |
| 2011 | 10.6 | 11.7 |
| 2012 | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| 2013 | 10.8 | 12.1 |
| 2014 | 11.1 | 12.5 |
| 2015 | 11.4 | 12.7 |
| 2016 | 11.4 | 12.6 |
| 2017 | 11.6 | 12.9 |
| 2018 | 11.7 | 12.9 |
| 2019 | 12.1 | 13.0 |
| 2020 | 12.0 | 13.2 |
| 2021 | 12.0 | 13.7 |
| 2022 | 13.3 | 15.0 |
| 2023 | 14.3 | 16.0 |
| 2024 | 14.4 | 16.5 |
| 2025 * | 15.3 | 17.3 |
Source: US EIA, average residential retail electricity price. Values in cents per kWh. * 2025 is preliminary.
Virginia residential electricity averaged about 15.3¢ per kWh in 2025 (EIA preliminary) — roughly 87 percent higher than in 2005. Over the last decade the pace has settled to around 3 percent a year, which is a meaningful, compounding climb even without a dramatic single-year spike. Nobody can promise that line keeps rising at exactly that rate, but a state adding data centers and population at Virginia's pace is not a state where power gets cheaper. Every point that rate climbs is a point in solar's favor, because it raises the value of every kWh your panels make instead of buy.
The Virginia Sun, Month by Month
Panels respond to how high the sun climbs and how long it stays up, not to air temperature. At 37.9°N, Virginia gets a real seasonal swing — summer days are long and the sun climbs high, winter days are short and the sun stays low — more pronounced than in the Deep South, less extreme than New England.
Virginia monthly solar production data
| Month | kWh per installed kW |
|---|---|
| Jan | 98 |
| Feb | 106 |
| Mar | 129 |
| Apr | 132 |
| May | 137 |
| Jun | 130 |
| Jul | 130 |
| Aug | 127 |
| Sep | 114 |
| Oct | 114 |
| Nov | 97 |
| Dec | 89 |
| Year | 1403 |
Source: NREL PVWatts typical-year estimate (Virginia Beach), per installed kW at latitude tilt.
The practical takeaway: Virginia's late spring and summer months carry most of the annual production, and December through February contribute the least. If your highest bills land in summer with the air conditioning running, that lines up well with peak production. If your biggest cost is winter heating, the seasonal mismatch is worth factoring into how much you expect solar to offset.
What Solar Costs in Virginia in 2026
Most residential installs in Virginia run about $2.50 to $3.05 per watt as of mid-2026, based on EnergySage, SolarReviews, and SEIA/Wood Mackenzie-compiled data. With the federal credit gone, that quoted price is essentially what you pay — there's no 30 percent step-down to plan around anymore.
| System Size | Typical 2026 Cost | Roughly Offsets | Fits |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 kW | $12,500 to $15,250 | ~7,000 kWh/yr (~$89/mo at 15.3¢) | Smaller home, lower usage |
| 8 kW | $20,000 to $24,400 | ~11,200 kWh/yr (~$143/mo) | Average-to-larger home |
| 12 kW | $30,000 to $36,600 | ~16,800 kWh/yr (~$214/mo) | Large home, high usage |
For context, the average Virginia system (around 14 kW) runs roughly $29,000 to $39,000 total before any incentive. Virginia's sales tax exemption applies automatically at the point of sale, so it's already baked into the quotes above rather than something you claim separately. Get at least three quotes and compare price per watt, equipment, and warranty length — installer margins vary more than the hardware does.
Estimate Your Virginia Payback
The calculator below is set to Virginia's average electricity rate and typical local sun production. Enter your own monthly bill to see an estimated system size, payback period, and 25-year savings. Virginia rates have grown at roughly 3 percent a year over the last decade — a reasonable default for the inflation field, though you can drag it to test other scenarios.
Virginia Solar Incentives That Still Exist in 2026
Virginia never had a state income tax credit for residential solar, so nothing was lost there. Here's what applies and what doesn't.
- Gone — the 30 percent federal credit: The federal Residential Clean Energy Credit ended for installations completed after December 31, 2025, with no phase-out. If a quote still assumes it, that installer hasn't updated their numbers for 2026.
- Still here — statewide sales tax exemption: Certified solar energy equipment is exempt from Virginia's sales and use tax under state law. It's applied automatically by the installer at time of sale — no separate application needed.
- Local option — property tax exemption: Virginia law lets cities and counties exempt the added home value from local property tax for systems up to 25 kW-DC, but each locality has to adopt the ordinance. Fairfax, Prince William, and Loudoun counties have; not every locality has. Confirm with your county's commissioner of the revenue before assuming it applies to you.
- Market-based — SRECs: Every megawatt-hour your system generates earns a Solar Renewable Energy Certificate you can sell to utilities or aggregators, separate from net metering. A 2026 law raising Virginia's solar carve-out from 1 to 4.5 percent is projected by some market analysts to lift SREC prices 60 to 90 percent over the following year and a half — but that's a market forecast, not a guaranteed payment, so treat it as upside, not a number to bank on.
- Partially — leases and PPAs: Third-party-owned systems can still capture a separate federal business credit (48E) through 2027, but it belongs to the leasing company. It may lower your monthly lease rate; it may just pad their margin. Compare any lease offer against a cash or loan purchase before assuming it's the better deal.
Net Metering and the Dominion NEM 2.0 Ruling
Net metering is what lets a bright afternoon's extra solar power offset the electricity you draw from the grid at night. In Virginia, both Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power offer net metering under state law (Va. Code § 56-594), regulated by the State Corporation Commission — and within each monthly billing cycle, your exported power offsets your usage 1:1 at full retail value. That monthly netting is what actually drives most of the bill savings.
Unused credit rolls forward for a 12-month true-up period. What happens at the end of that period is where the news is: on April 30, 2026, the SCC finalized Dominion's new "NEM 2.0" tariff, replacing the prior arrangement. Any annual net excess generation left over at the true-up date is now cashed out at about 5.8¢ per kWh (a rate that includes a 1¢ adder the SCC added on top of Dominion's own proposal) — a real cut from the prior full-retail-value carryover, and worth knowing before you size a system. The SCC also allowed a new $1 monthly administrative fee. Customers keep ownership of their SRECs either way.
What matters is what the SCC didn't change: Dominion had asked to cut export compensation by as much as half, and regulators said no. Monthly 1:1 netting stayed, the 12-month true-up stayed, and Dominion's proposed customer application fee was rejected outright. For a homeowner who sizes a system to roughly match their own usage — the standard approach — very little production ever touches the lower true-up rate. Appalachian Power's net metering program was separately preserved without the same overhaul. On a municipal utility or co-op, confirm its specific terms before signing anything.
How to Go Solar in Virginia
Work through these steps before you sign anything.
- Pull your last 12 power bills and find your true average monthly cost — Virginia's summer AC and winter heating loads both swing bills, so one month tells you little.
- Confirm your roof faces south, east, or west and gets minimal shade for most of the day.
- Make sure your roof has at least 15 years of remaining life, or budget to replace it first — see our roofing guide for how to judge that.
- Get at least three quotes, compare price per watt and warranty terms, and confirm none of them assumes the federal credit still applies.
- Ask whether your locality has adopted the property tax exemption, and confirm whether Dominion or Appalachian Power net metering applies to your address.
- Ask each installer how they handle SREC registration and sale — some bundle it, others leave it to you.
- Compare the payback period against how long you plan to stay in the home; at a decade-plus, moving sooner shifts the return from "lower bills" toward "higher resale value."
For the fundamentals of how panels work, sizing, and buying versus leasing, see our main solar panels guide — this page covers what's specific to Virginia. If your electrical panel is older or undersized for a solar tie-in, our electrical guide walks through what an upgrade involves.
Sources
Figures on this page are 2026-current. Rates: US EIA, Electric Sales, Revenue, and Average Price (2025 values preliminary). Production estimates: NREL PVWatts. Dominion NEM 2.0 ruling: pv magazine USA, Solar United Neighbors, SEIA. Sales tax exemption: Virginia Department of Taxation. Property tax exemption: Va. Code § 58.1-3661. Cost data: EnergySage, SolarReviews. State incentive database: DSIRE. We review these figures every six months.